In Virginia, Early Voting Has an Impact. And a Long Run.

In the choky contention for politician of Virginia, Election Day has morphed into Election Month.

By the clip voters formed their ballots connected Election Day adjacent Tuesday, hundreds of thousands of different voters volition person already done truthful successful idiosyncratic and by message during a period and a fractional of aboriginal voting. The state’s six-week aboriginal voting period, 1 of the longest successful the country, began connected Sept. 17 and ends connected Saturday.

More than 724,965 ballots had been formed successful idiosyncratic and by message arsenic of Monday, much than triple the aboriginal turnout 4 years ago, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan radical that tracks voting data.

The surge successful aboriginal voting signals that the oversea alteration successful voting habits successful 2020 whitethorn everlastingly change elections astir the country.

The coronavirus pandemic has helped person much and much voters into aboriginal voters — successful the 2020 statesmanlike election, the aboriginal ballot made up 63 percent of the electorate, up from 36 percent successful 2016. Even arsenic conservatives person attacked the legitimacy of voting by message with mendacious claims of wide fraud, the popularity of aboriginal voting successful Virginia by some Democrats and Republicans has been shaping the dynamics of the contention and whitethorn play a relation successful delaying the last results if the predetermination is extraordinarily close.

Before 2020 successful Virginia, aboriginal voting lasted for 7 days and required an excuse from voters. Last year, the State Legislature extended aboriginal voting to up to 45 days and expanded entree to each voters by removing the excuse requirement, a response, successful part, to the pandemic.

“We utilized to shove 4 cardinal voters done the doors successful 13 hours,” said Christopher E. Piper, the commissioner of the Virginia Department of Elections. “Now we tin bash that implicit the people of 45 days.”

The displacement successful voting habits creates a big of caller electoral difficulties.

With much voters casting ballots by mail, postal strategy delays are threatening to disenfranchise thousands of voters. With hundreds of thousands of votes cast, but nary enactment registration information successful Virginia, some candidates are pushing interior run projections to assertion momentum.

And if the contention is highly close, last results mightiness not beryllium known for days, akin to the 2020 statesmanlike election.

Virginia requires that counties statesman processing ballots this week by opening the envelopes, checking for eligibility and scanning them. But the authorities besides accepts ballots that were postmarked by Election Day but not received by officials until the pursuing Friday (18 different states and the District of Columbia have akin provisions). In 2020, 10,901 ballots were received and counted aft Election Day successful Virginia.

If the contention betwixt Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic candidate, and Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate, is highly close, those late-arriving ballots, coupled with an expected summation successful provisional ballots, could beryllium pivotal. A victor whitethorn not beryllium projected for up to a week.

“I deliberation that’s the aboriginal of everybody’s elections the much we spell to voting by message arsenic an enactment for voters,” said Scott O. Konopasek, the manager of elections for Fairfax County, the largest region successful Virginia. “If there’s immoderate adjacent races, we’re not going to cognize until aft the Friday aft the election.”

While the surge successful aboriginal voting has exceeded the aboriginal turnout successful 2016, the numbers this twelvemonth person failed to support up with 2020, successful portion due to the fact that the Virginia predetermination is an off-year race. Still, based connected existent aboriginal voting trends, wide turnout could apical retired astir 2.6 million, astir connected par with the 2017 elections, according to Michael McDonald, a prof of authorities astatine the University of Florida who studies voting.

So far, aboriginal ballot totals successful Virginia bespeak much of a displacement successful behaviour than a emergence successful turnout, arsenic 90 percent of aboriginal voters successful Virginia this twelvemonth besides voted aboriginal successful the 2020 election, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic governmental information firm.

“Some radical weren’t alert that they could ballot by absentee ballot oregon ballot aboriginal successful 2020, due to the fact that that was the archetypal predetermination that this instrumentality was changed, and present they conscionable similar doing it,” Mr. McDonald said.

Partisan models amusement Democrats continuing to outpace Republicans astatine a important clip for aboriginal voting. But 1 of the voting blocs that has been a interest for the McAuliffe run has been the younker vote.

Democrats person besides had to contend with immoderate predetermination medication issues during the aboriginal vote. Last week, the Democratic Party of Virginia sued the Postal Service for what it claimed was an unusually dilatory processing of much than 25,000 message ballots crossed 3 cardinal counties: Albemarle, James City and Portsmouth.

The suit asks a national tribunal to unit the Postal Service to process each the remaining ballots successful those counties successful 24 hours.

But amid those challenges, the McAuliffe run has been claiming momentum, heightened by a important uptick successful voting past week successful cardinal Northern Virginia suburbs. Deeply bluish Fairfax astir tripled turnout aft much voting locations were opened crossed the county.

“This twelvemonth we expect to person the highest elector turnout ever seen successful a nonpresidential twelvemonth successful Virginia,” said Christina Freundlich, a spokeswoman for the McAuliffe campaign. “We person seen a meaningful leap successful the regular aboriginal ballot totals from the past week, with implicit 250,000 ballots formed since past Monday, concentrated successful high-density Democratic areas successful Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.”

The caller laws that opened entree to aboriginal voting, approved by a Democratic-controlled State Legislature and a Democratic politician successful some 2020 and 2021, were criticized by immoderate Republicans arsenic attempting to constitute partisan vantage into the predetermination code. Early voting by message has been a changeless people of Mr. Trump.

But Mr. Youngkin has aggressively embraced aboriginal voting and ballot by mail, often holding rallies adjacent early-voting sites, encouraging attendees to ballot afterward. His run runs substance messaging programs geared toward aboriginal voting, and door-to-door knockers assistance pursuit down message ballots.

“Republicans don’t usually ballot early, truthful we’re trying to acceptable a caller culture,” said Jeff Roe, a elder advisor to the Youngkin run who besides advised the statesmanlike campaigns of Mr. Trump successful 2020 and Senator Ted Cruz successful 2016.

Mr. Youngkin’s run says its absorption connected aboriginal voting is aiding his chances. While the information from some campaigns amusement Democrats with a pb successful early-voting numbers, the Youngkin squad claims it is outpacing Mr. Trump’s 2020 show successful Democratic counties, including Chesterfield and Henrico adjacent Richmond and Virginia Beach successful the east.

“We are connected way to beryllium successful a bully spot starting Election Day,” said Kristin Davison, a elder strategist for the Youngkin campaign.

Lisa Lerer contributed reporting.